$ES_F Backtesting 3/31 price action 1:7 Risk/Reward short #ICT
Thursday, March 31, 2022
First, this is drawn all in hindsight after todays close on $ES_F. Those posts help me to learn all that #ICT stuff and getting better at spotting entries right when they happen during trading hours. I get back to theses posts even during the day and find similar setups.
I’m nowhere near to see all the things during a live trading session, this is all learing and backtesting to me.
This trade was not taken with real money or even paper, it just helps me learning.
If you’ve no idea what I talk about, have a look at ICTs Youtube 2022 Mentorship video series. All infos are from there.
Right click on the images and open them in a new window to see a larger version
60min chart with first look
Basically an even earlier entry would be possible, but I tried to stick to the NY session open at 7AM, so I took this as a possible break in Market Structure to dig deeper.
Finding profit targets based on Market Structure
This took me a while to figure out, because I still learn all these things… But I think I found a good one.
I anchored the MSS levels on todays price range high to low (open/close price), because in one of the videos ICT mentions it that way (Can’t remember which video it was, maybe the High Probability Scalping series).
As mentioned in an earlier post, The -1.5 is a great profit level and if you look on this 5min chart, price had a small reversal on exactly this level before going down even more.
15min chart
Now trailing it down to the lower time frames and see what we find there.
No FVGs or imbalance on the 15min chart that caught my eye.
Going into the 5min chart.
5min chart
There we go… On the 5min we have a small FVG right inside an Orderblock, perfect setup to go short here.
3min and Short entry
Entry would be the small FVG right inside the OB. I went down into the 3min chart to tighten the orderblock, because I want to tighten the stops above the orderblock.
A 5 handle-stop is sufficient, sits right above the OB and has great R/R.
Aiming for that -1.5 level, as ICT mentioned in some of his videos is a great spot and was a 1:7 Risk/Reward trade that way. That was a 36.25 handles trade, now quickly calculate in your head how much this one trade is worth on one full $ES contract. :-)
Just for fun and precision
I did not hunted for the lower levels, but look how price respected the levels there, stopped right at the -3 level. Remember from above, even this is hindsight, I draw that fib from the daily high->low and price sticked to it later in the day.
The risk/reward if held such long would be insane 1:13.5 with 67.75 handles down on $ES_F.
Still learning, but I notice that I now spot such setups during real trading hours way quicker then a few weeks ago. Getting there!